Nikhil George
5/16/2025
Following the brutal massacre of 26 civilians on April 22, 2025 in India, most of them tourists, in the Indian administered region of Kashmir, tensions between India and Pakistan have rapidly escalated. The United States has stepped in to urge both nuclear armed nations to de-escalate the situation, with Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio publicly calling for restraint. While India has directly blamed militants operating from Pakistani controlled territory, Pakistan denies involvement and warns of possible Indian military retaliation. In this article, we will explore the causes of this crisis, reactions from world leaders, military movements on both sides, and the long term regional impact.
The terrorist attack in the town of Pahalgam is the deadliest in Kashmir since 2000 and has triggered outrage across India. India responded by canceling visas for Pakistani nationals, suspending a key water sharing treaty, and closing its airspace for flights to and from Pakistan. In return, Pakistan banned Indian flights and shot down an alleged Indian surveillance drone in the disputed Kashmir region. While Indian officials have not confirmed their plans for retaliation, Pakistani security sources claim that Indian fighter jets approached Pakistani airspace in what they believed was a potential air- strike mission. India had recently suspended the 1960 Indus Water Treaty following the massacre after stopping waterflow, leaving no water flowing into Pakistan. Both sides have also exchanged gunfire for several nights along the Line of Control, a border between the two countries, further increasing the fear of more fatal conflict.
Military activity has intensified significantly as expected for any massacre event, and considering the history between the two countries, no one was expecting any less. India’s armed forces, supported by a defense budget over nine times larger than Pakistan’s, have been conducting missile tests. India holds clear advantages in conventional warfare, with more tanks, artillery, ships, and submarines according to the New York Times. While both countries rely on a mix of Russian, French, and Chinese fighter jets, India’s fleet is generally more modern. However, Pakistan maintains strategic deterrence through its Chinese built JF-17s and U.S. made F-16s, and both nations possess nuclear capable missile systems, making any misstep a global security risk. As of now, both countries are still tied to NPT, which is a treaty prohibiting nuclear warfare around the world due to how devastating the effects can be when nuclear tools are used.
The U.S. and European Union have urged calm, fearing that this situation could mirror the 2019 crisis when India conducted airstrikes inside Pakistan. Analysts argue that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is under pressure to respond forcefully, as stability in Kashmir is seen as central to his political legacy, with a history of conflict as it has been an Indian state bordering Pakistan which both countries are trying to claim as their own land. Whether this moment leads to another limited military exchange or a wider conflict depends solely on what steps both governments take in the coming days. While the U.S. has so far played a mediating role, the international community may need to intervene more if the crisis continues to escalate.